How Trump’s tariffs and Iran war are becoming liabilities in Michigan’s Senate race

Key points

• Rogers has stopped mentioning Trump in ads as tariffs and the Iran war hurt him in Michigan.
• Only 4.3% of GOP general election ads mention Trump, down from 47.1% in primaries.
• Rogers and Democrat El-Sayed are in a toss-up race three weeks before the election.

Michigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers has stopped mentioning President Donald Trump in his campaign messaging, a shift from months of defending Trump's tariffs, as the trade fight with Canada and the war in Iran become political liabilities three weeks before an election that could decide Senate control.

Rogers is in a dead heat with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the race a toss-up, while polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne gives El-Sayed a four-percentage-point lead.

Republicans avoid Trump in ads

A CNBC analysis of AdImpact data found that 57 of 1,324 Republican general election ads mention Trump, or 4.3%, down from 47.1% during the primaries. Democratic candidates mention Trump in 20.9% of their general election ads, nearly five times the Republican rate.

Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said Republicans needed to align with Trump to win primaries but need independence to survive November.

It's a high-wire act with no safety net

— Ron Bonjean

Michigan trade and tariff costs

Michigan conducts roughly $80 billion in annual trade with Ontario, according to the Michigan Chamber of Commerce, and Canada bought $23.2 billion in state goods last year, about 39% of all Michigan exports, per the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. In August, the U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods after negotiations collapsed, and Canada responded with retaliatory tariffs.

The Detroit Three automakers reported roughly $6.5 billion in combined tariff-related costs in 2025, according to a CNBC analysis of company disclosures. Michigan agricultural exports to Canada fell 12.3% in 2025, and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's administration estimated tariffs were averaging Michigan households about $1,000 a year.

Rogers shifts on Iran war

Rogers initially called Trump's decision to strike Iran the right thing to do, but as the war continued and energy costs rose, he called for a quick end to it, saying Michigan families are struggling with the price of everyday life. Michigan highway diesel hit $6.71 a gallon in September, according to Michigan Farm News.

A September WDIV/Detroit News poll by the Glengariff Group found 64.2% of likely Michigan voters opposed Trump's Canadian tariffs, and nearly 62% said they hurt the state's economy.