Poll shows Bolsonaro with slight lead over Lula ahead of Brazilian run-off
Poll shows right-wing candidate with two percent advantage over Lula going into second round of voting on October 25.
Key points
- Quaest poll shows Flavio Bolsonaro at 46 percent and Lula at 44 percent.
- The difference is within the two-percent margin of error.
- Datafolha poll shows Bolsonaro's lead narrowed from four to two points.
A new Quaest poll released on Thursday shows right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro with a slight lead over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of Brazil's October 25 runoff vote. Bolsonaro has 46 percent support among respondents, compared to Lula's 44 percent.
The difference falls within the two-percent margin of error, and many experts consider the runoff too close to call. Bolsonaro outperformed expectations in the first round on October 4, beating Lula by less than two points.
Polling details
The Quaest poll is the first released since the initial round of voting. It shows Bolsonaro has held onto his lead and remains the favourite heading into the second round.
A separate Datafolha poll released on Thursday also found Bolsonaro leading Lula. But it determined that his advantage has shrunk over the last week from four points to two points. Last week Bolsonaro had 49 percent support; in Thursday's poll his advantage narrowed to 47 percent, compared with 45 percent for Lula.
Today is a day to celebrate a historic achievement for millions of workers.
— Lula
Campaign developments
Lula has sought to rally his supporters after the October 4 loss, holding large rallies that have drawn millions of people onto the street. Analysts have pointed out that Bolsonaro has not benefitted as much from the elimination of several conservative candidates as might have been expected.
Bolsonaro has made progress securing endorsements from right and centre-right parties as he seeks to consolidate support from conservatives and build a coalition friendly to business interests and investors. Lula has been touting his platform for social reform in the final weeks before the runoff.
Brazil's Senate approved a constitutional amendment on Wednesday reducing the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours without a reduction in pay. That change was a key policy priority for Lula. He also recently banned sports betting and on Thursday indicated he would submit a constitutional amendment to Congress guaranteeing free public transportation in all Brazilian cities on weekends.
