South Texas Latino voters who flipped for Trump in 2024 are up for grabs in 2026

Key points

• South Texas Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 may swing back to Democrats in the 2026 midterms.
• Republican super PAC CLF pulled over $5 million in ads from Texas' 28th District.
• Three majority-Latino border House races are toss-ups or lean Democratic.

Latino voters in South Texas who helped elect Donald Trump in 2024 are now seen as up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections. The region's three majority-Latino border districts are among the closest in the country and could decide control of Congress.

In Texas' 28th District, Republican candidate Tijerina, a former Democratic Webb County judge who defected in 2024, is challenging Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar. The district backed Trump by 7 percentage points in 2024 but also re-elected Cuellar to an 11th term.

Shifting Latino Sentiment

Recent polls indicate waning Republican enthusiasm among Latino voters. A Cook Political Report survey found Democratic statewide candidates in Texas leading among likely Hispanic voters by 2-to-1. An NBC News/Telemundo poll released Oct. 4 showed 27% of Latino voters approved of Trump and 59% preferred Democrats control Congress.

Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist, told CNBC that "Latino voters are pissed" and that Democrats benefit from their anger at Trump. The Cook Report lists the Cuellar-Tijerina race as "lean D."

Latino voters are pissed

— Chuck Rocha

GOP Pulls Ads

On Wednesday, the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House Republicans' super PAC, effectively dropped its push to boost Tijerina and pulled millions of dollars in ads from the district. The PAC had invested more than $5 million to oust Cuellar this cycle, according to AdImpact.

The Flores-Gonzalez and De La Cruz-Pulido races are also toss-ups, per the Cook Report. Republicans had redrawn congressional maps in Texas and Florida after 2024, banking on continued Latino support.