These Senate races may help determine the fate of Social Security

Key points

• Social Security's trust fund may be depleted in late 2032, risking a 22% benefit cut without Congress action.
• Nine competitive Senate races feature candidates with Social Security plans, CNBC reports.
• Proposals include lifting the payroll tax cap, creating bipartisan commissions, and eliminating benefit taxes.

Senators elected in November will face a critical question before their six-year terms end: what to do about Social Security. The program's trustees project that the trust fund used to help pay retirement benefits could be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032. Without congressional action before then, benefits could be cut by 22%.

A recent survey by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation found that 81% of voters in states with competitive Senate races are more likely to support a candidate with a plan to avoid automatic benefit cuts than one who promises not to touch the program. CNBC identified nine Senate races where candidates have mentioned their Social Security plans, all rated as closely contested battlegrounds by MS NOW.

Candidate proposals vary by state

In Alaska, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan has voted for laws that increased program costs and said at an Oct. 15 debate that reforms must be bipartisan. His opponent, Democrat Mary Peltola, calls for eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek supports removing the payroll tax cap, while Republican Ashley Hinson opposes benefit cuts and has backed a bipartisan commission.

Maine's Republican Sen. Susan Collins said at an Oct. 8 debate that the payroll tax cap should be adjusted and backed an expert commission. Her opponent, Democrat Troy Jackson, wants to raise the cap and expand benefits. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed calls for eliminating the cap and taxes on benefits, while Republican Mike Rogers supports a bipartisan committee. Nebraska Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts wants benefits to be completely tax-free, and independent Dan Osborn seeks to raise or eliminate the payroll tax cap.

Anyone who's going to propose cuts to Social Security is going to get a 'hell, no' from me.

— Ashley Hinson

More states in focus

New Hampshire Democrat Chris Pappas says high earners should pay their fair share and that seniors deserve a raise. Republican John Sununu has supported diverting payroll taxes to private accounts but said he never voted to cut benefits. In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper says he will protect and strengthen Social Security, while Republican Michael Whatley says he will preserve and protect it and work in a bipartisan way.

In Ohio's special Senate election, Democrat Sherrod Brown supports raising the tax cap to extend the program's life. Republican Sen. Jon Husted has called for genuine bipartisan solutions and voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.