Where are the most expensive midterm races and who is funding them?

Key points

• The 2026 US midterms are projected to break records for total spending in a political election cycle.
• The Texas Senate race is the most expensive, with over $534m spent and nearly 4.5 million early voters in the first week.
• Elon Musk has donated $446m, mostly to Republican causes, including more than $150m to boost Ken Paxton in Texas.

Voters across the United States will go to the polls on Tuesday for the 2026 midterm elections, a contest expected to serve as a referendum on Republican President Donald Trump's job performance at the halfway mark of his second term. Control of Congress could hinge on a handful of closely contested Senate and House races, with candidates, parties and outside groups pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into the contests.

This year's midterms are projected to break records for total spending in a political election cycle. Among the most expensive individual races are toss-up Senate seats in Texas, Ohio and Michigan.

Texas leads record spending

The Texas Senate race is projected to shatter spending records for a US Senate race. More than $534m has been spent on the contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Nearly 4.5 million Texans cast ballots in the first week of early voting alone, according to the Texas secretary of state's office.

Talarico has raised $146m compared with Paxton's roughly $22m, but Paxton has benefited from nearly $300m in outside spending, including $37m from MAGA Inc, a super PAC aligned with Trump. A late October CNN projection showed Talarico at 49 percent support and Paxton at 43 percent.

Musk has donated nearly as much as the top six donors – on either side of the aisle – combined.

— Al Jazeera

Ohio and Michigan costs

Ohio is considered the second-most expensive Senate race this cycle, with more than $435m spent on the contest between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted. A Marist Poll released on October 20 suggested Brown led by four points, while other surveys showed the two virtually tied.

In Michigan, an estimated $333m has been spent on the Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. A late October poll from Michigan State University showed El-Sayed leading Rogers 48 percent to 45.5, but the race is expected to be tight.

Who is funding the races

Republicans have out-raised and out-spent Democrats this cycle, according to Federal Election Commission filings. The Republican National Committee received about $341m and paid out roughly $303m as of October 14, while the Democratic National Committee raised nearly $252.3m and spent about $252.8m.

The top donors have overwhelmingly backed Republicans. Elon Musk gave $446m, Elizabeth and Richard Uihlein donated about $150m, and Jeff and Janice Yass contributed $110m to right-wing causes. On the left, George Soros gave about $102m, Michael Bloomberg pledged $84.2m plus an additional $36m on Friday, and Reid Hoffman and Michelle Yee gave about $41.2m.

Musk's donations include more than $150m to boost Paxton in Texas, one of the largest political donations in US history. Among groups, One Nation has spent $133m for Republicans, while Majority Forward has spent $102m for Democrats.