US midterms: 2 days to go – what polls say as Trump, El-Sayed hit the trail
Democrats remain ahead in national polls as Trump and candidates make their final push in the days before polling day.
Key points
- Democrats lead Republicans 51.5 percent to 43.1 percent in the RealClearPolling average two days before the US midterms.
- Trump campaigns in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday while Abdul El-Sayed holds events in Michigan.
- Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to win majorities in both chambers.
With two days until the US midterm elections, Democratic and Republican leaders are making final efforts to win voters. The cost-of-living crisis, worsened by the US-Israel war on Iran, has become a key issue. According to the latest RealClearPolling average, Democrats lead Republicans by 51.5 percent to 43.1 percent. A THP/MM survey on October 28 and 29 put Democrats ahead 54 percent to 41 percent, and an Emerson College poll from October 24 to 26 showed a 10-point Democratic lead.
On Sunday, President Donald Trump will campaign in Iowa and Kansas, while Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate facing increased Islamophobic attacks, will hold events in Michigan. A total of 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to win majorities in both chambers.
What analysts said
Natalie Jackson, a political analyst and pollster, told Al Jazeera that the results reflected public dissatisfaction with Trump and the economy. She said polling might not accurately reflect individual Senate races and that pollsters have reported potential issues reaching Republican voters. Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, questioned a Washington Post-Schar School poll showing Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Senator Roger Marshall 52 percent to 43 percent in Kansas, citing an outlier poll in Iowa two years ago. He said many Republicans do not want to answer calls from pollsters.
Celinda Lake, a Democratic strategist working with El-Sayed's campaign, said feelings about Democrats are also negative. She said the Michigan race will depend heavily on turnout. Jackson said she is fairly confident Democrats will win the House majority, but the Senate picture is unclear.
Polling shows an environment that is pretty favourable to the Democrats.
— Natalie Jackson
Final campaign messages
Both parties are focusing their closing messages on the economy and cost of living. Democrats have emphasized affordability, while Trump has held telephone rallies for Republican candidates in close races. Heye said Republicans have not found a convincing closing message and should focus on energy, healthcare and grocery costs. Lake said El-Sayed has made affordability central to his campaign.
More than 51 million Americans have already voted. Trump initially cancelled his Iowa and Kansas rallies before reversing the decision on Friday. Heye said the appearances should not have been cancelled. Polling stations begin closing on Tuesday evening, with first results expected shortly afterwards.
