Are the US midterms going to see a blue wave of Democrats winning seats – or a blue flood?
Donald Trump uttered five words this summer that could seal the Republican party’s fate: ‘Pretend I’m on the ticket’ He spoke admiringly of a senator’s posterior. He baselessly accused a Muslim candidate of being a terrorist. He boasted about his renovations of the White House. He quipped that his own supporters couldn’t afford a hamburger at his Mar-a-Lago club. Every now and then, he spoke about the cost of…
Key points
- Trump told Republicans to 'Pretend I'm on the ticket,' making the midterms a referendum on his second term.
- Polls show Democrats leading 47% to 36% on the generic ballot, with Trump's approval at 32%.
- Economic anger over tariffs, the Iran war and living costs is driving a 'blue wave' that could flip Congress.
Donald Trump has held dozens of rallies ahead of next week's US midterm elections, but it was five words he said at this summer's Republican convention in Dallas that could define the outcome: 'Pretend I'm on the ticket.' According to The Guardian, that plea helped ensure the midterms will deliver a national verdict on Trump's second term, and opinion polls suggest the judgment will be damning.
Republicans hold a 218–214 margin in the House and a 53–47 lead in the Senate. A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey gave Democrats an 11-point lead, 47% to 36%, on the generic congressional ballot, while Trump's approval rating stood at 32%. Voters will also choose governors in 36 states and three US territories.
Economic anger drives defections
Trump won in 2024 after promising to curb inflation and lower prices, but the opposite has happened, the article states. Voters face an affordability crisis worsened by his sweeping foreign tariffs and the decision to launch airstrikes on Iran in February. Diesel prices have soared, hitting agriculture and freight transport from California's Central valley to Iowa and Ohio.
The coalition that powered Trump in 2024 has suffered blow after blow, including his failure to fully release the Jeffrey Epstein files and the growth of datacentres in rural communities. The article also cites a perception that he is using the presidency to enrich himself and his family, with his personal fortune rising from $2.3bn in 2024 to $6.5bn, according to Forbes.
Donald Trump nationalised these races, and now they'll lose seats because of it
— Michael Steele, former chair of the Republican National Committee
Latino support erodes
The article reports a dramatic erosion of Republican support among Latino voters after Trump unleashed an aggressive deportation campaign featuring heavily armed Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids in cities and agricultural hubs. Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, said Latino voters are having 'serious buyers' remorse.'
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the most expensive Senate race in history, despite $300m in outside Republican spending led by Elon Musk. Larry Jacobs of the University of Minnesota said a Paxton loss would prove that attacking the fastest-growing part of the electorate is 'political suicide.'
