Trump's diesel dilemma — by the numbers

Key points

• Diesel prices have more than doubled since early 2026 and are expected to stay high into 2027.
• Trump paused sanctions on Russian diesel and announced a deal for 4.8 million metric tons.
• Analysts say the release is unlikely to lower prices in the near term.

Diesel prices are surging as midterm elections approach and are likely to remain high in the near future, according to analysts. The International Energy Agency's October report, released Wednesday, predicted that constraints on the diesel market will keep prices elevated into next year, warning that inventories will likely remain strained until the second half of 2027 even if refineries increase production.

Last Friday, President Donald Trump unexpectedly paused sanctions on Russian diesel fuel and announced a deal with President Vladimir Putin in which the Kremlin would release 4.8 million metric tons of diesel, or nearly 36 million barrels, to the global market. Over the weekend, Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine on Truth Social, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later accused Russia of attacking Ukraine's energy facilities.

Market pressures and prices

Wholesale diesel prices have more than doubled since the beginning of 2026 through the end of September as the war in Iran and Russia's war in Ukraine have dramatically cut global supply. In the U.S., the price of a gallon of diesel rose nearly 40% between July 6 and Sept. 22.

Trump has blamed the war in Ukraine for high diesel prices. On July 8, Russia banned diesel exports after Ukraine struck its refineries. However, diesel prices had already jumped after the Iran war started and were still 20% above their prewar level when Russia instituted its export ban, making the supply tightening feel more acute.

energy ceasefire

— Donald Trump

Outlook and impact

A Goldman Sachs note last week predicted that diesel prices will remain high through 2027 as refineries struggle to meet demand. Releasing Russian diesel to the global market is unlikely to drop prices in the near term, according to analysts.

Both conflicts have created major ripple effects across global energy markets, causing major swings, sometimes daily. Rising fuel prices, particularly diesel, have become a major flashpoint ahead of this year's midterm election.