Two scenarios for the Yemen war

Key points

• Houthi attacks on Saudi civilian infrastructure have escalated the Yemen war and killed at least a dozen people.
• Saudi Arabia is seeking a region-wide coalition including Gulf states, Pakistan and Turkiye to counter the Houthis.
• The conflict could end in a decisive counteroffensive or a prolonged war of attrition benefiting Iran.

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including strikes on civilian infrastructure such as airports, have pushed the Yemen war to a new level. The attacks have killed at least a dozen people and injured hundreds, according to the article.

The article describes the Houthi escalation as a reckless gamble that serves Iran's agenda of raising tensions before the United States midterms. It says the situation could develop into either a major region-wide operation against the Houthis or a war of attrition.

Saudi efforts to build a coalition

Saudi Arabia is working to gain maximum international support and deepen regional and international alliances to form a united front against what it calls a regional threat. Gulf states, with the possible exception of Oman, are expected to back Riyadh directly and indirectly.

Pakistan and Turkiye are also likely to join, having signed a defence agreement known as the Mecca Pact. The pact is to be ratified by the Turkish parliament in the next few days, opening the way for Turkish military deployment. US intervention is possible but unlikely before the midterms.

no victor, no vanquished

— the article

Possible outcomes and risks

A region-wide coalition could support the counteroffensive of forces loyal to Yemen's internationally recognised government, potentially retaking the western coast and easing pressure on Red Sea shipping. Retaking Sanaa is also possible, but internal discord within the government and negative external interference remain obstacles.

If the coalition and government succumb to divisions, progress against the Houthis may slow, allowing them to hold positions and increase pressure on Taiz. This could prolong the war, raise civilian casualties and displacement, and hurt Saudi Arabia and Gulf economies. The article warns of a deadlock with no victor, from which Iran would emerge as the winner.