Bad news for Trump ahead of the midterms: it’s still the economy, stupid
Voters’ opposition to the state of Trump’s economy is well established – despite his desperate attempts to deflect Our reporters answer your questions about the US economy and the midterm elections It’s indisputable that the political polarization of our time has reduced (and confused) the influence of economic conditions on US elections. In September of 2024, in the waning weeks of the Joe Biden presidency, 65% of…
Key points
- Polling by Harris for the Guardian shows 38% of Republicans say the economy is worsening, up from 29% a year earlier.
- Rural Americans, a long-standing Republican base, are hit hard, with 64% saying the economy is getting worse versus 52% of city dwellers.
- Overall, 58% of average US voters think the economy is worsening, 10 percentage points more than in the last poll of the Biden era.
Ahead of November's midterm elections, analysis by Eduardo Porter in the Guardian says voters' dissatisfaction with the economy under Donald Trump is well established despite his efforts to deflect attention. Polling by Harris for the Guardian indicates the mood has soured even among his most loyal supporters.
The article notes that partisan polarization has weakened the link between economic conditions and US elections. It cites a September 2024 poll in which 65% of Republicans believed the economy was getting worse, falling to 33% about six months later as Trump launched his "liberation day" tariffs.
What the polling shows
Harris reported that 38% of Republicans believe the economy is worsening, up from 29% a year ago. Among rural Americans, 64% said the economy was getting worse this month, compared with 52% of city dwellers, and 61% of white Americans held that view, up from 48% in September 2024.
The share of men who believe the economy is getting worse rose from 46% to 52% over the same period. Overall, 58% of average US voters think the economy is worsening, 10 percentage points more than in the last poll of the Biden era.
we’re growing at a faster rate than we’ve ever grown before
— Donald Trump
Pressure on Republican base
The article says rural Americans have been battered by Trump's policies, including his trade war, which largely barred them from China's markets. It also cites the rising price of diesel and fertilizer, which it attributes to Trump's war in Iran, his raids against immigrants in the labor force, and his move to lower tariffs on imported meat to tame beef prices.
The article notes that the September consumer price index, which recorded a spike in annual inflation to 3.7%, had not yet been published when Harris did its latest polling earlier this month.
