‘From liabilities to goldmines’: refineries eye record profits from diesel shortage
Firms turning crude oil into the ‘workhorse’ fuel stand to gain most despite economic fallout from record prices Business live – latest updates Days after Donald Trump announced a deal to import Russian diesel into the US in an effort to lower soaring pump prices, the world’s energy watchdog has warned that the global fuel shortage will drag into 2027. Trump’s temporary sanctions reprieve was criticised for offering…
Key points
- The IEA warned the global fuel shortage will stretch into 2027 despite sanctions relief and emergency stockpile releases.
- Western refiners are poised for record profits as diesel prices surge amid refinery damage and export restrictions.
- US refiners' market value more than doubled, with combined stocks climbing $215bn this year.
The International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday that the global fuel shortage will drag into 2027, despite plans to ease trade sanctions or release emergency stockpiles. The shortage follows the shutdown of war-damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia, once the world's second-largest diesel exporter behind the US.
The IEA said record diesel prices are already raising the cost of goods and impacting real incomes, economic activity and inflation. UK diesel prices are now the highest in Europe.
Refiners reap record profits
Western refineries that turn crude oil into fuels are preparing for record profits from the shortage. TotalEnergies boss Patrick Pouyanné said the energy crisis had provided "plenty of opportunities if you're able to capture them", adding that European refineries once seen as liabilities were "suddenly becoming goldmines".
TotalEnergies posted its strongest quarterly profits in three years this summer, with refining and chemicals income more than quadrupling to $1.8bn between April and June. US fuel product exports climbed more than 50% in the past year to an all-time high of 1.9m barrels a day over the summer.
Record diesel prices are already having broad economic consequences by raising the cost of goods and impacting real incomes, economic activity, and inflation
— the International Energy Agency
US and European windfalls
The market value of three of the largest US oil refiners – Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy and Phillips 66 – has more than doubled since the crisis began, with their stocks climbing a combined $215bn this year. Shell expects record profits per barrel of fuel produced over the last three months, with refining margins forecast to nearly double to $42 a barrel.
Diesel accounts for 10% of world energy consumption and supplies into the global market fell by about 1m barrels a day from their 2025 level last month. The IEA said the shift to diesel could lead to a surplus by early next year while creating conditions for the next squeeze: gasoline.
