How Iran messaging highlights cost of war ahead of US midterm elections

Key points

• Iran is targeting the American public with messages about the war's economic costs before the US midterm elections.
• US diesel prices hit a record $6.33 per gallon and gas rose to $4.33 after Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz.
• Trump said the election will not affect his Iran policy, while Democrats could curb war funding if they win Congress.

Iran has been sending messages aimed at the American public that highlight the cost of the war launched by the United States and Israel, ahead of next month's US midterm elections. Iranian officials have published articles in state-affiliated outlets about the war's impact on oil prices and the US economy, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has targeted US officials over rising costs and military spending.

Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Tehran is trying to increase the political cost of the war for Trump by speaking directly to the American public. He said Iran is not necessarily trying to get Democrats into power or manipulate US politics in a certain direction, but is focused on raising the cost of the Iran war and pushing its own narrative.

Economic pressure and attacks

Since the war began on February 28, Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices soaring. In the US, diesel is at an all-time record of $6.33 per gallon and gas is $4.33, up from less than $3 before the war, according to the American Automobile Association. Iran has intensified attacks on vessels around the strait in recent days after Trump and his aides repeatedly said the waterway is under US control.

On Wednesday, Ghalibaf shared a news story about inflation rising to 3.7 percent last month along with a collage of negative headlines on the US economy. He also posted a Road Runner comic strip showing Wile E Coyote building a catapult that misfires. In a message to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Ghalibaf wrote, “Let’s ‘play the percentages’. Not in odds, but in the % increases,” referring to inflation. Bessent had said last month that he represents “the house”, likening the economy to a casino.

They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don’t realise is that I’m not running

— Donald Trump

IRGC letter and election stakes

In a letter to the American public on September 29, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps accused Trump of lying about the cost of the war and the state of the US economy. The IRGC said countries have lost faith in the US economy and are offloading US bonds, warning that the economy will implode. It also said Americans need to wake up and wrest control back from corrupt politicians.

Trump's Republican Party is seeking to keep control of the Senate and House in the midterm vote. Democrats, who largely oppose the war, are mounting a strong challenge, including in conservative strongholds such as Texas. Trump has suggested he would either strike a deal with Iran or return to full-scale war after the November 3 elections, and he dismissed the idea that the vote will affect his Iran policy. Toossi said Iran is debating the potential impact of a Democratic victory, but he does not think it affects Iran's overall strategy of increasing the costs of war.