Risk of Iran war escalation remains high despite Democratic sweep in U.S. midterm elections

Key points

• Analysts say war risk with Iran remains high despite Democratic midterm gains and falling oil prices.
• The U.S. sent a third carrier strike group to the region as attacks on tankers continued.
• Trump said he will decide soon whether to attack Iran again, warning the U.S. is "locked and loaded."

Analysts say the U.S. and Iran remain close to renewed war despite Democratic midterm election gains that raised hopes of ending the conflict, CNBC reported. Crude oil prices fell more than 16% over five trading days after Vice President JD Vance blamed the Republicans' loss on the war.

Democrats plan to use their majorities in both chambers of Congress to pass a war powers resolution demanding President Donald Trump end the war. But Democrats are not sworn in until January, and Middle East tensions have not eased since the election, the analysts said.

Military and maritime tensions

Late Saturday, U.S. Central Command said it disabled a St. Kitts-flagged ship after the tanker ignored warnings and tried to leave the region after visiting an Iranian port, according to media reports. Iranian state media reported explosions on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and blasts at the port of Jask; CNBC could not independently confirm the reports.

Several oil tankers have come under attack near Oman since the election, killing one seafarer, maritime security agencies said. Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen continue firing missiles at neighboring Saudi Arabia, and a third U.S. carrier strike group is en route to the region. Rapidan Energy sees an 80% chance fighting will resume as diplomacy stalls.

I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible but maybe I'll have to

— Donald Trump

Trump's warnings and diplomacy

Trump told reporters Thursday he will decide soon on whether to attack Iran again. "I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible but maybe I'll have to," he said in the Oval Office, adding: "We're locked and loaded."

Trump discussed de-escalation with the emir of Qatar in a Friday call, Qatar's state news agency reported. An unnamed senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran sent a nuclear proposal to the U.S. through Qatar and will discuss it only after the U.S. meets its demands. Trump appeared to dismiss the diplomatic efforts, saying Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.