Scientists confirm global warming is accelerating faster than ever recorded
Earth is warming faster than ever recorded, with scientists detecting a major acceleration in global temperatures since around 2015. A new study reveals that the warming rate has surged to approximately 0.35°C per decade, nearly double the average pace observed from 1970 to 2015. After removing natural climate fluctuations, researchers confirmed the acceleration with more than 98% statistical confidence.
Key points
- Earth warmed about 0.35°C per decade over the past 10 years, nearly twice the 1970–2015 rate.
- After adjusting for natural factors, researchers found over 98 percent statistical certainty of acceleration since 2015.
- Researchers warn the 1.5°C Paris Agreement limit could be exceeded long-term before 2030 if the rate continues.
A new study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) has found the first statistically significant evidence that global warming has accelerated since around 2015, with Earth heating faster than at any time since modern records began in 1880. The research was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Over the past decade, the planet warmed at roughly 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset used. That is nearly double the average rate of just under 0.2°C per decade recorded between 1970 and 2015.
Filtering out natural influences
Natural patterns such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity can temporarily warm or cool the planet and obscure longer trends. The researchers mathematically adjusted temperature observations to account for these influences, then analyzed five major datasets: NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth and ERA5.
The results were consistent across all datasets and methods, with statistical certainty above 98 percent. Signs of acceleration appeared in the data as early as 2013 or 2014. Even after adjustments, 2023 and 2024 remained the warmest years on record.
If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement before 2030
— Stefan Rahmstorf
Implications for the Paris Agreement
The study was not designed to explain why the acceleration occurred, but the researchers say the observed rate is consistent with current climate models. They warn that if the past decade's warming rate continues, the world could exceed the 1.5°C Paris Agreement limit on a long-term basis before 2030.
