Thursday briefing: Thanks to an erratic Trump, peace in Ukraine is still far away
In today’s newsletter: As Russia resists a ceasefire and Trump’s shifting priorities unsettle allies, an end to the conflict isn’t getting any closer Good morning. In his usual asinine unconventional approach to international relations, Donald Trump announced on Sunday (via Truth Social, how else) an “ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine”, apparently without checking with either side. Volodymyr…
Key points
- Donald Trump announced an "ENERGY CEASEFIRE" between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday via Truth Social without checking with either side.
- Nigel Gould-Davies says Russia has no interest in ending the war and that Trump's declared ceasefire had "no basis whatsoever in reality".
- Ukraine's military had its access to Starlink satellite internet terminals suddenly restricted as the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to halt long-range strikes on Russia's oil industry.
Donald Trump announced an "ENERGY CEASEFIRE" between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday via Truth Social, apparently without checking with either side. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the deal was "news to me" but declared Ukraine "ready and we will accept it", while Vladimir Putin responded by blowing up Ukrainian power plants.
The episode reflects a pattern of false starts and U-turns in Trump-era diplomacy on the war. Andy Burnham hosted Zelenskyy at Downing Street on Wednesday, saying the UK is doubling down on its support for Ukraine and calling on others to "follow suit".
Why talks keep failing
Former British ambassador Nigel Gould-Davies, now a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the Guardian that a peace deal is only possible when both sides believe ending the fighting serves their interests better than continuing it. He said the problem is that Russia has no interest in ending the war.
Gould-Davies said talks since Trump's return to the presidency have not really been negotiations, but parallel efforts by Russia and Ukraine to persuade the White House that the other side is to blame. Ukraine has repeatedly said it will accept an unconditional ceasefire, while Russia has said publicly it is not interested in one, seeking what he described as decisive superiority over a severely weakened Ukraine.
A peace agreement is only possible when both sides believe that it better serves their interests to end the fighting than to continue
— Nigel Gould-Davies
Trump's role and Starlink
Gould-Davies described Trump as a "non-standard president" whose natural centre of gravity favours Russia. He said Trump's unilateral energy ceasefire declaration had no basis in reality and was "a product of a fantasy".
Zelenskyy accused Trump of restricting Ukrainian access to "military-grade" Starlink services, hampering drone strikes and air defences. Trump also announced a plan to import Russian diesel to lower US pump prices, drawing dismay from European leaders and a bipartisan group of US senators.
