Trump's Russia diesel deal may offer Putin more than money — and spell trouble for Ukraine
Trump's diesel deal may do little for Russia's finances, but it raises bigger questions about Ukraine's leverage, U.S. support and Putin's next moves.
Key points
- Trump agreed to ease sanctions so Russia can supply 4.8 million metric tons of diesel to global markets.
- Experts say the financial gain for Russia is small, but the political benefit is significant.
- Zelenskyy condemned the sanctions waiver, saying it helps only the Russians.
U.S. President Donald Trump's agreement with Vladimir Putin to ease sanctions in exchange for Russian diesel supplies has raised new questions about Washington's reliability as Kyiv's main military partner, CNBC reported. The deal, alongside restrictions on U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukrainian forces, puts President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a difficult position as winter approaches.
On Saturday, Zelenskyy condemned the White House's waiver of key provisions of a recently enacted sanctions package aimed at curbing Russia's war effort.
Limited financial gain for Moscow
The agreement covers 4.8 million metric tons of diesel, about ten days of U.S. domestic demand or roughly one day of global demand. Experts told CNBC it will barely affect prices.
Sergey Aleksashenko of the NEST Centre estimated the first phase, covering 1.8 million metric tons, could bring up to $1.25 billion in extra export revenue over three months, around 1% of Russia's commodity export revenues in that period. The gain to Russia's federal budget would be far smaller, under $30 million a month, or less than 0.07% of monthly federal revenues.
The decision to undo all of this, to block all of it, seems wrong to me
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Political fallout and Starlink limits
Aleksashenko said Russia's main gain is political, easing sanctions pressure and undermining Western unity without requiring concessions from Putin. Maria Snegovaya of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the deal likely boosts Moscow's belief that continued pressure will bring further Western concessions.
Reports also emerged that SpaceX's Starshield military application has been restricted in Ukraine. According to a Reuters report citing three officials, the order came from inside the White House. Ukrainian officials said Ukraine could not shoot down some Russian drones and did not receive advance warning of incoming ballistic missiles, resulting in civilian deaths.
Zelenskyy warns of precedent
Speaking to reporters in Brussels on Friday, Zelenskyy warned the diesel agreement could set a precedent for further sanctions relief, pointing to gas, the banking system, certain individuals and the chemical industry.
