Ukrainians fear US intelligence cuts as Russian strikes intensify

Key points

• Ukraine's partners did not provide NATO early-warning satellite data during this week's deadly Russian strikes, Zelenskyy said.
• Trump denied Washington stopped sharing intelligence, but analysts say he wants an energy ceasefire to lower oil prices and help Republicans in midterms.
• SpaceX limited Starlink terminals on drones flying over 160km/h, a move linked to Trump's request, raising fears of a full shutdown.

Kyiv, Ukraine – Nightly Russian ballistic missile attacks this week killed at least 15 people and wounded dozens, with air raid sirens sounding only seconds before or after strikes hit apartment buildings, power plants and warehouses. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday that Ukraine's partners did not provide intelligence data from NATO's early-warning satellites, as tensions between Washington and Kyiv rise. He did not name the United States, and President Donald Trump has denied that Washington stopped sharing intelligence.

The military satellite constellation detects Russian ballistic missile attacks by the rockets' thermal flames seconds after launch, giving Ukrainians up to 10 minutes to sound sirens and send emergency text messages prompting evacuations to bomb shelters. "That's what helps prevent the killings," Zelenskyy said. Ukraine's ground radars can only detect incoming missiles as their speed ranges from 6,000 to 12,000km/h.

Analysts cite political pressure

Despite Trump's denial, Ukrainian observers say the US president wants to help Republicans win congressional seats in upcoming midterm elections by pressuring Kyiv into declaring an "energy ceasefire" with Moscow that would drive global oil prices down. "Trump pressures our president, pressures Ukraine" to "get advantage by any means necessary in the election campaign," Lieutenant-General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine's general staff of armed forces, told Al Jazeera. The lack of intelligence data "significantly affects the effectiveness of air defence, we don't have time to respond," he said, adding that without it Ukrainian drones and missiles "lose precision when striking targets deep in Russia."

Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!

— Donald Trump

Ceasefire announced, strikes continue

On Sunday, Trump announced the ceasefire that envisages no mutual strikes on energy infrastructure, from Russian oil refineries and fuel depots to Ukrainian power and heating stations. "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" Trump wrote on social media. Kyiv said the announcement was a surprise, while Moscow declined to say whether it backs the idea and kept hitting Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

The suspension of data-sharing was especially shocking, given that Kyiv did stop hitting Russian refineries for three days. It was only on Wednesday that its drones attacked refineries in Saratov and Ryazan regions, said Russia's Deputy Prime Minister, Aleksander Novak. Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevych told Al Jazeera that pressure will continue until "Kyiv shows readiness for a compromise and concessions towards Russia," and that Moscow "simply abuses" the pressure and the suspension of air raid warnings to escalate attacks.

Starlink limits and refinery strikes

On Wednesday, Ukraine's drone czar accused Elon Musk's SpaceX of throttling Starlink satellite terminals that are part of the military-grade Starshield system. Serhiy Beskrestnov said SpaceX abruptly and without warning limited services for terminals placed on drones flying over 160km/h. The limit affected interceptor drones and followed Trump's request, presidential adviser Serhii Sternenko said. Musk said the White House owns and controls the Starshield systems and that any limits on speed are decided by Trump.

Some military analysts warn the limit may be followed by a total shutdown of Starlink for Ukraine that could damage all military communications. "But we were getting ready for everything," Andriy Pronin told Al Jazeera. "We already know it may happen, that's why we're ready for any turn of events." In September 2022, Musk secretly ordered engineers to switch off Starlink coverage in the Russia-occupied Kherson region, thwarting Kyiv's push to retake it, Reuters reported. In 2023, Musk threatened to cut off Ukrainian military access to Starlink unless the US defence department took over the costs; later the Pentagon, Poland and other European allies took over the costs.

Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany's Bremen University told Al Jazeera that Kyiv's focus on striking oil refineries is ineffective and counterproductive. Russia overcame the initial shock by transporting gas from Siberia and exporting it from Belarus and Kazakhstan, he said, with no economic collapse or protests. He said Ukrainian attacks on data centres, bridges and drone assembly factories are far more effective, citing recent strikes on Yandex and Sberbank data centres that disrupted services in Russia and former Soviet republics.