Can Democrats win the US Senate? 10 key midterm races to watch

Key points

• Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats in November to take control from Republicans, who hold a 53-47 majority.
• Voter discontent over Trump, the Iran war and rising prices has made races competitive in once-safe Republican states.
• Key battlegrounds include Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.

Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats in November's midterm elections to take control of the US Senate from Republicans, who currently hold a 53-47 majority. A Democratic takeover seemed highly unlikely at the start of the year, before the US launched its war on Iran. Voter discontent with President Donald Trump, the Iran war and rising prices has heightened races in once-safe Republican states.

Al Jazeera outlined 10 key races that could decide Senate control, including contests in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.

Contested Republican strongholds

In Alaska, Republican Senator Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola and an independent candidate also named Dan Sullivan. Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024, but recent polls suggest Peltola narrowly leading. Peltola raised $33m in October compared with nearly $14m for Sullivan.

Iowa, which Trump won by 13 points in 2024, has an open-seat contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek after Senator Joni Ernst declined to seek re-election. Hinson has called for an "immediate end" to the Iran war but voted against six resolutions seeking to end US involvement, according to Politifact. Turek has outraised Hinson $20m to $14m, though recent polls show Hinson narrowly ahead.

Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, but rising farming costs and opposition to Trump's immigration crackdown have made the race competitive. Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton. Hamilton has outraised Marshall $14m to $6m, and Democratic groups have outspent Republicans $28m to $22m.

I feel like this is yet another diversion from the issue that Alaskans want to talk about, which is affordability

— Mary Peltola

Democratic-held seats to defend

Maine is a top Democratic pickup opportunity, with Republican Senator Susan Collins facing Democrat Troy Jackson. Jackson has raised about $26.9m compared with $25.2m for Collins through mid-October, while Republican groups have outspent Democrats $76m to $40m.

In North Carolina, Trump has suggested Democrats will win. Democrat Roy Cooper has raised $50m and has $9m in the bank, while Republican Michael Whatley has raised $14m with just $900,000 on hand. Recent polls show Cooper leading by double digits.

Democrats are defending open seats in Michigan and New Hampshire. In Michigan, progressive Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas faces former Republican Senator John Sununu; Pappas has raised $24m compared with Sununu's $6m.