Trump called out Big Oil profits. Here’s how much their refining earnings have surged since
Trump criticized Big Oil for making “too much money,” but oil majors have since reported surging refining earnings as fuel supplies tightened.
Key points
- Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Exxon reported sharply higher refining margins, while Chevron's downstream earnings more than quadrupled to $4.9 billion.
- Refinery closures in Europe and North America, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and Middle East disruptions have tightened refined fuel supplies.
- Wood Mackenzie's Raphael Portela said physical tightness in the market could last well into 2027 even if tensions ease.
President Donald Trump criticized ExxonMobil and Chevron in August, saying they were making "too much money based on a shortage" as profits rose after the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Corporate results released this week showed the oil majors are still benefiting from tight fuel supplies and elevated refining margins amid global conflict.
Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Exxon all reported sharply higher margins in their refined-products businesses, which measure earnings from turning crude oil into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Chevron does not report a standalone refining-margin figure, but said Friday its downstream earnings more than quadrupled from a year earlier to $4.9 billion, citing higher margins on refined-product sales.
What is driving the margins
The companies say they are running refineries near capacity to meet demand, but supplies remain tight. Factors include Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, disruptions to Middle East energy infrastructure and supply chains tied to the Iran war, and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
These pressures have compounded refinery closures in Europe and North America. European Commissioner for Energy and Housing Dan Jørgensen said this week that around a quarter of EU refineries have shut over the past two decades, warning of a "crisis" of energy security. Higher crude oil prices have also supported earnings at integrated majors, with profits climbing back toward levels seen during the 2022 energy shock.
Russia's refinery outages and export ban have taken a second slug out of the global pool.
— Raphael Portela, Wood Mackenzie
Outlook for consumers
The earnings gains contrast with higher energy prices for consumers. Some analysts say political measures, such as releasing emergency diesel stockpiles and a U.S. deal with Russia for more diesel supply, may have limited impact unless they materially increase supply, demand weakens or global tensions ease.
Raphael Portela, director for corporate strategy and analytics at Wood Mackenzie, told CNBC that crude barrels were still leaving the Gulf but at a steep freight premium, while the diesel and jet fuel they would have become largely are not. He said ending the crunch would require Gulf refineries restarting and Russian exports returning, adding that depleted inventories mean physical tightness carries well into 2027.
