Russia’s alleged sabotage campaign in Europe raises fears of escalation
From drone incursions to an alleged campaign of assassinations, Russia is feared to be pressing a shadow war.
Key points
- European officials accuse Russia of airspace incursions, drone incidents and sabotage across NATO and EU states.
- Latvia's ambassador says masked individuals from Belarus pushed migrants into Latvia and damaged border infrastructure.
- Experts say Europe must impose costs on Russia, and Zelenskyy asks for at least 70 billion euros more in aid.
Russia appears to have escalated its shadow war in Europe this year, according to European officials. They allege Russian fighter planes entered Polish, Lithuanian and Estonian airspace, and suspected Russian drones were downed over Poland, Finland and the Baltic states.
Moscow has also been accused of bringing trouble to the Black Sea. In two operations in October, Ukraine accused Russia of using aerial and surface drones to sink four cargo ships just outside Bulgaria's territorial waters, in an apparent warning about Ukraine's grain exports through NATO waters.
Border pressure on the Baltics
Russia and Belarus have also been accused of trying to destabilise the Baltic states by making their borders appear fluid. Latvia's ambassador to Greece, Ieva Cesniece, told Al Jazeera that masked and most likely armed individuals on the Belarus side escorted and tried to push groups of illegal migrants into Latvia, and threatened Latvian soldiers and border guards.
Cesniece said that on the same day, in a separate incident, masked individuals crossed into Latvian territory and carried out deliberate sabotage, damaging border infrastructure and removing surveillance equipment. Latvian media reported that migrants who tried to run back from the Latvian border were rounded up by Belarusian authorities and pushed towards Latvia again.
The weaker Russia appears in Ukraine, the more it tests our resilience, trying to weaken NATO and EU resolve and support for Ukraine.
— Ieva Cesniece, Latvia's ambassador to Greece
Warnings and calls for deterrence
Cesniece linked the Russian war in Ukraine to its shadow war in Europe, saying that the weaker Russia appears in Ukraine, the more it tests NATO and EU resilience. Czech spy chief Michal Koudelka warned in September that Russia might attempt a military attack on a NATO member in months, not years, and Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said European defence industries supplying Ukraine were legitimate targets.
Olena Tregub of Ukraine's Independent Anti-Corruption Commission said deterrence means convincing Russia that its operations will become too costly, and she is not sure Russia currently sees those costs as sufficiently high. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the European Council on October 16 that next year the war will cost 155 billion euros and that Ukraine needs at least 70 billion euros more from Europe.
