Why a Democratic win in US midterms could adversely affect Europe

Key points

• Analysts say a Democratic win in the US midterms would not fundamentally change European politics but could have two adverse effects.
• A Democratic Congress might make Europeans complacent about their own far-right movements, according to Catherine Fieschi of Carnegie Europe.
• It might also spur US President Donald Trump to pressure Ukraine into a deal with Russia that it does not want.

Polls suggest Democrats could take one or both houses of the US Congress in the midterm elections, with an average eight-point lead in the House and Senate. Analysts told Al Jazeera that while a Democratic victory would improve transatlantic relations, it could also have two potentially adverse effects on Europe.

First, a Democratic Congress might produce complacency among Europeans regarding their own far-right movements. Second, it might spur US President Donald Trump to raise pressure on Ukraine to make a deal it does not want to make with Russia.

Complacency risk for Europe

Catherine Fieschi, a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Europe specializing in European far-right politics, said a Democratic win would be read as proof that democracies bounce back. She said it would introduce the idea that such developments do not mean the advent of a fascist regime.

Fieschi said a Democratic win could lead to discussion about whether Marine Le Pen's election should be feared as much as some say. Le Pen is currently leading polling for France's presidential elections scheduled for April 18, with surveys indicating about 34 percent of the popular vote.

If the Democrats win the House, let alone both houses, it will be read as, 'you see democracies bounce back,'

— Catherine Fieschi

Pressure on Ukraine

Fieschi said a Democratic win might lead to a situation where Trump clinches deals with Putin as fast as he can, referring to US-Russian strategy to coerce Ukraine into a peace agreement involving sacrificing its eastern Donbas region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said this would be a strategic error leading to renewed war, and a majority of Ukrainians are against it.

Trump has already leveraged US early warning on incoming ballistics and Starlink satellite navigation against Ukraine, and has twice echoed Russian calls for Zelenskyy to be replaced. Victoria Vdovychenko, a Ukraine expert at Cambridge University's Centre for Geopolitics, told Al Jazeera that Russia could intensify its all-domain war, which many European governments believe it is already waging against them.