Why Texas Dems are forecasting a "Hispanic hurricane" in midterms
Two years ago, President Trump made historic gains with Hispanic voters nationwide and won a majority of Texas Hispanics. Now, Democrats believe they could swing back.
Key points
- Democrats see a possible Hispanic swing back in Texas, citing the economy and immigration enforcement.
- Trump won about 55% of Texas Hispanic voters in 2024, but his Latino approval has since fallen.
- Early voting in Hidalgo and Cameron counties rose 63% over the same period in 2022.
Democrats in Texas are predicting a "Hispanic hurricane" in the midterms, pointing to Hispanic voters' frustration with the economy and concern about the Trump administration's immigration policies. Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist and CBS News political contributor advising the party's Senate and gubernatorial candidates in Texas, said the shift is washing ashore in front of the GOP.
Hispanic voters make up more than 30% of Texas' eligible electorate and could prove pivotal in the state's closely watched Senate and gubernatorial races. An October CBS News poll found six in 10 Hispanic voters planned to back Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton for Senate, and Hispanic voters favored Democrat Gina Hinojosa over Gov. Greg Abbott by a similar margin.
A shift from 2024
President Trump won about 55% of Hispanic voters in Texas in 2024, according to exit polling, turning blue counties in the Rio Grande Valley light red. Nationally, he won about 48% of the group, up 12 points from 2020, according to Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters.
Trump's approval rating among Latinos stood at 24% in early October, with 57% of Latinos who voted for him in 2024 approving of his job performance, down from 93% in February 2025. Fifty-one percent of Latino voters said they planned to vote for a Democratic House candidate, compared to 24% for a Republican.
There's a Hispanic hurricane coming. We just don't know quite yet if it's going to be Category 2 or Category 5
— Chuck Rocha
What both sides say
Hinojosa told CBS News that Trump won by telling voters the system is rigged, adding that "Democrats had been defending a system that is indefensible." Rep. Joaquin Castro said immigration enforcement is the main driver of heightened engagement, arguing Hispanic men feel they have been treated like criminals.
Republicans are skeptical. Daniel Garza of the LIBRE Initiative said there is "no pro-Democrat enthusiasm" in South Texas and that Democrats' outreach to Latino men is unlikely to pay off. A senior GOP strategist dismissed the optimism as coming from "the same people that have taken Hispanic voters for granted for the last decade."
Early voting in Hidalgo and Cameron counties reached nearly 150,000 ballots in the first week, a 63% increase over the comparable period in 2022, according to figures reported to the Texas Secretary of State's office. The figures do not show which party those voters support.
