Scientists reveal 93% of Australia's Indigenous population was lost in just 73 years
A groundbreaking study suggests that 2.22 million Indigenous Australians lived on the continent before European colonization, far more than previously believed. Researchers estimate that 93% of this population was lost within 73 years, revealing a demographic catastrophe on a scale that dramatically changes our understanding of Australian history.
Key points
- New research estimates about 2.22 million Indigenous people lived in Australia before European colonization in 1788.
- The study says 93% of the Indigenous population was lost within 73 years, with about 2.06 million excess deaths between 1788 and 1861.
- Researchers project the Indigenous population may not return to its pre-colonial level until around 2047.
New research published in Nature Human Behaviour estimates that about 2.22 million Indigenous people lived in Australia before the First Fleet arrived in 1788, far more than earlier historical estimates of 250,000 to 1 million. The study was led by Associate Professor Alan Williams and included Professor Corey Bradshaw of Flinders University.
The researchers say the findings show that 93% of Australia's Indigenous population was lost within 73 years of European arrival. They estimate about 2.06 million excess deaths occurred between 1788 and 1861, an average of roughly 28,200 per year.
How the estimate was made
The team combined ethnographic observations, archaeological findings, genetic reconstructions and computer models, and also examined how many people different environments could have supported. Earlier figures often relied on anthropologist Alfred Radcliffe-Brown's 1930s estimate of 250,000, which he acknowledged did not fully account for disease, frontier violence and structural violence.
The researchers calculated a median pre-colonial population of 2.22 million, or about 0.29 people per square kilometer. They say lower estimates were influenced by widespread population losses before the earliest Australian censuses.
These devastating findings highlight the major impacts of invasion experienced by Indigenous Australians, and demonstrate their remarkable survival, resilience and recovery over the past century
— Associate Professor Alan Williams
Decline and recovery
By 1861, the Indigenous population had fallen to an estimated 7% of its pre-colonial size. According to the 2021 Australian census, it was about 37% of the study's estimated median population in 1788, and the researchers project it may not return to that level until around 2047 if current growth trends continue.
The authors say the scale of the collapse has implications for understanding intergenerational trauma and persistent disadvantage, and for policies supporting Indigenous communities. The study received joint funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures and the Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage.
